Next year, electricity demand slows down or below 10%

"Tightening of power supply will slow down next year." According to an insider of the CEC, due to the impact of the slowdown in economic growth next year on electricity demand, combined with the double stimulation of the NDRC's electricity price increase and coal price restriction, the power companies, especially thermal power companies, were mobilized. Enthusiasm. Tensions in power supply will slow down next year. However, this person also pointed out that the current energy structure is undergoing adjustment, if the new energy output is insufficient, and thermal power project investment declines, then the "12th Five-Year" will form a large power gap.

The power demand will slow down next year The effectiveness of the NDRC's power tariffs and coal price limits will gradually emerge.

Baoxin Energy announced on the 22nd that the company recently received the “Notice on Raising the On-grid Price of Power Generation Enterprises of Shaoguan Power Plant, etc.” by the Guangdong Provincial Price Bureau. The on-grid electricity price of the generating units of the Meishuyuan Power Plant Phase I and Phase II of the company was increased by 0.038 on the original basis. RMB/kWh (tax included). The implementation of the electricity price adjustment since December 1, 2011 will increase the company's 2011 operating income by approximately RMB 12 million, which will have a positive impact on the company's operating results this year. Prior to this, Huaneng Power International also announced that after adjustment of on-grid electricity prices on December 1, according to the weighted average of the price adjustment capacity of the company’s subordinate power plant units, the average on-grid price in 2012 is expected to increase by RMB 28.8/MWh.

Some analysts pointed out that the NDRC's electricity price increase and coal price limit measures have greatly improved the thermal power company's future performance and provided guarantee for the next year's power supply. In view of the expected slowdown in economic growth next year, the analyst believes that next year's power demand growth will be lower than this year.

According to Ge Jun, a researcher of Changjiang Securities, last December was the last month of the national “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period for energy-saving and emission reduction policies. The growth rate of electricity consumption in the base period fell rapidly. Combined with the current economic stage, it is expected that the national single in December this year. The monthly electricity growth rate will be lower than that in November, but the cumulative growth rate will remain at above 11% for the whole year. As the overall economic slowdown may affect power consumption demand next year, it is expected that the growth rate of electricity use will be 9.12% next year.

The experts of the CEC also pointed out that the growth rate of electricity demand is expected to be over 10% next year, but considering the impact of electricity supply and economic growth slowdown on electricity consumption demand next year, it is expected that the growth rate of electricity demand next year will be 9%. -10%.

The reduction in thermal power investment or the new power shortage The experts of the China National Electric Union pointed out that due to the limitation of approval, the investment in thermal power is rapidly declining, and the number of thermal power projects under construction and proposed is relatively small. If new energy is not available, the power supply in the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” will be tight. Intensified.

At present, China is rapidly adjusting its energy structure accordingly. According to the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” for renewable energy, it is necessary to increase the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption. By 2015, domestic wind power will reach 100 million kilowatts, and the annual energy output will reach 1900. With 100 million kilowatt-hours, solar power will reach 15 million kilowatts, and annual energy output will be 20 billion kilowatt-hours. Together with biomass energy, solar thermal utilization, and nuclear energy, the total non-fossil energy will reach 480 million tons of standard coal by 2015.

While increasing the proportion of renewable energy, thermal power investment has gradually declined. CEC statistics show that from January to November, thermal power investment dropped significantly. In the first 11 months, the combined investment in hydropower, nuclear power and wind power accounted for 67.3% of the total power investment, up 3.9% year-on-year, while the proportion of thermal power investment was only 29.59%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%. In addition, at the end of November, the scale of thermal power projects under construction decreased by 13.46 million kilowatts over the same period of the previous year, and the scale of thermal power projects under construction has continued to be below 70 million kilowatts this year.

“Strengthening the development trend of renewable energy is also inevitable, but in the absence of new energy, we still need to properly develop some clean thermal power projects.” Insiders pointed out that due to wind power, photovoltaic and other current grid connection problems, Although the installed capacity of new energy sources has increased rapidly, the actual output has been relatively small and it is unable to meet the growing demand for electricity. If this contradiction cannot be resolved for a long period of time, it is bound to trigger a large power gap at the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period.