Fifteen years ago, the author was studying in school. At that time, as a poor farmer, I often read the "China Business News" subscribed by a well-off classmate in the same class. At that time, "technology" had become one of the focuses of the media and society. Home appliances, PCs, telecommunications, and software can be regarded as the four star high-tech industries of the time, and the popular saying at the time was called "national industry". It seems that without high-tech, they are embarrassed to say their own national industries, and the rise of China , As if tied to these industries. "Industrial Juicer" Chinese Phenomenon At that time, Haier, Hisense, Changhong, Konka, TCL, Gree, Midea in the home appliance industry, Lenovo, Founder, Tongfang, Ziguang in the PC industry, giants, large, middle, and China in the telecommunications industry, and Jinshan and Jiangmin in the software industry , UFIDA, Kingdee, New Zhongda University ... together constituted a picture of China's new industry that was rising at the time. At least, the ideal is full. Time is also trending. Today, 15 years later, Chinese manufacturers have become an important pole of the world in all the hardware fields of the above industries, and occupy the world's largest market share in the home appliance industry. Haier is for white electricity, Gree is for air conditioning, and beauty is for Yu small appliances are the global leader; Huawei, which has the second place among the top five manufacturers in the telecommunications industry, and ZTE, the fifth place; in the PC field, Lenovo has also become the world's second-only software, not to mention. However, a change of words made the plump ideal at that time very skinny. At that time, the term "national industry" has gradually gone away. "Made in China" replaced it, and behind it, it also means that the global The era of low gross profit in the industry is coming, no matter the home appliance, PC, or telecommunications equipment, without exception. Among them, the home appliance industry is the most mature and fully reflected. In most industries, as long as China is the main player participating in the competition, it will basically be reduced to the Red Sea, especially in the manufacturing industry. Made in China is like a diligent juicer, which can reduce the profit margin of the industry to a very suffocating level. I also call this phenomenon the "juicer" phenomenon of the Chinese industry. For example, the home appliance industry. The earliest rise of the home appliance industry at the beginning of the 20th century is an important part of the second industrial revolution electrification revolution, and Edison invented the light bulb as a starting point. The rise of the home appliance industry from the United States, driven by Germany and Japan, gradually began to prosper in the 1960s and partly moved to South Korea in the 1980s. During this period, they were all called "high-tech industries." Until the last decade of the 20th century, China reached complete maturity and became a "mass industry" in the last 10 years. When more than 70% of the world's home appliances are manufactured in China, the bargaining power of the home appliance industry may be inferior to clothing, food and other industries. The same is true in terms of the market value of global companies: For example, Gree, which has the highest domestic market value, has a market value of about US $ 11 billion, US about US $ 7 billion, and Haier, which is not listed as a whole, has about US $ 5 billion; while European appliance leader Electrolux has only about 6 billion. The market value of Daikin Industries, the most competitive home appliance company in Japan, is about 7 billion U.S. dollars. The market value of the former diversified leading companies such as Sony and Panasonic is only more than 10 billion U.S. dollars. The market value of three major Japanese home appliance companies, Sony, Panasonic and Sharp, are all Approaching or hitting a 30-year low, and before returning to liberation overnight, the market value of Japan's top five electronics companies has evaporated 70% in 10 years. "Strangling" is not over So why is this phenomenon happening? In fact, the problem is not complicated, mainly from three internal causes: First, the technology spillover effect. Any so-called "technical industry" is different from other industries, but it is actually its technical barriers. When such technical barriers are high enough, it can produce higher bargaining power and high gross profit. However, the diffusibility of knowledge determines that once any technology is publicly applied, there must be a tendency to spread from high-tech potential energy to low-tech potential energy. This kind of diffusion is reflected in the home appliance manufacturing industry, which is "diffusion from high-cost countries to low-cost countries" and "diffusion from high-knowledge countries to low-knowledge countries." When China began to undertake global home appliance factories, the migration of manufacturing also brought about the migration of knowledge. Local manufacturers gradually learned the skills of the home appliance industry until the cost advantage, the knowledge disadvantages decreased, and the market overtake until. Second, the bottleneck of technological evolution. In the fields of chips, AMOLED and storage, why have Chinese companies not risen? This is because, in industries such as chips, AMOLED, and storage, the technology is more intensive, the barriers are higher than the home appliance industry, the technology is upgraded faster, and the spillover is more difficult-of which, the evolution of technology is the most important link. Any static technology may be learned by a developing country in a relatively long period of time. However, the technological evolution in some areas is too fast, which makes China as a follower too late to catch up quickly, and the technology-leading countries can maintain their advantages. Coupled with flexible barriers such as intellectual property rights and industry standards. In the home appliance industry, although the LCD and LED technology revolution occurred a few years ago, in most areas, the change is not big, and ultimately the cost advantages of Chinese companies are enough to offset the technical disadvantages. Therefore, when Sony, Sharp, and Panasonic, the three wealthy and handsome Japanese companies, are all dying, China's domestic appliance manufacturers are still struggling hard, but they are standing still, catching up with giant monsters like Samsung. Third, the challenges of overcapacity and insufficient market concentration. At present, in the world, there are few manufacturing industries that do not have excess capacity, from aircraft manufacturing to military manufacturing, to clothing, toys, and home appliances. The industry with excess capacity cannot have excess profits, not to mention the industry's industrial concentration. It is still too low. China still has more than 20 so-called mainstream home appliance manufacturers. In the PC industry, there are less than 10 mainstream players globally, and in the telecommunications equipment industry, there are only 5 mainstream manufacturers left. Competition is still fierce, not to mention the home appliance industry? In addition to these three reasons, there are new challenges ahead. A few years ago, major home appliance companies were heavily constrained by Suning, Gome and other channel manufacturers. Now, the popularity of e-commerce has not only forced Gome and Suning to In a dead end, if the market share of home appliance manufacturers is more concentrated in the future, it will inevitably have a stronger bargaining power for home appliance manufacturers. In addition, the export market of developing countries has shrunk, and the state subsidies cannot continue ... The path of the Chinese household appliance manufacturers is not yet over. In fact, of the 7 billion people in the world, the original so-called developed country population is only about 1.5 billion. It also includes Greece, Portugal, Spain and other "full-chargers." Once the Chinese have mastered the corresponding technology, the industrial pie that originally belonged to the developed countries will have to add 1.3 billion people to the denominator, not just household appliances, any manufacturing industry will become the residue of the Chinese juicer-unless Microsoft, Apple , Intel, and Google are monopolistic enterprises that are difficult to spill over. This is also the fundamental reason why the high-end king, the United States, the mid-range king, South Korea, and the low-end king, China, benefit relatively in the current globalization process. Except for a few countries such as Switzerland and Germany, countries such as Europe and Japan, which are in the cracks, have little chance of a successful counterattack.
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