Father of Win8, Sinowski: Unmanned subversion of the automotive industry

Steven Sinofsky, a former Microsoft Windows business executive and venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, wrote on Tuesday to explain how the rise of driverless cars would have a disruptive effect on the automotive industry.

This article refers to the address: http://

For a long time in the twentieth century, the automobile industry was the representative of the "American Dream." Only the “Big Three” directly employs as many as one million employees, and their living standards have improved. The leaders of automobile companies have also become the founders of modern management. In the land of the United States, cars and culture are intertwined. It is because of the car that a suburban lifestyle is possible.

Despite the rise of the oil crisis, the improvement of the quality of imported products, the challenge of labor costs, the continuous spread of cities, and the increase in corporate bankruptcy, the automobile industry is still huge and still an important part of the US economy. It is still an important driving force for economic growth.

For this reason, the subversion faced by the automotive industry is even more fascinating. Past experience shows that all subversions have one thing in common: although it is happening, you can't predict its future; and if you are "incumbent", you can always hear subversion. sound. It is for these reasons that it is difficult for us to assert whether the automotive industry is being subverted.

There are indications that the social and technological foundations that subvert the automotive industry already exist. The incumbent is increasingly questioning new technologies. And those companies that are expected to maintain the status quo seem to regard the government as their own spokesperson, and block new technologies in the name of security.

The driverless car that Google recently launched at the Code conference gives us the opportunity to think about the upcoming changes from a global perspective, and to look forward to the possibility of subverting the changes in the industry in the future and studying the corresponding countermeasures.

I have seen the five signals from the products displayed at the Code conference. If they are combined, they will completely subvert our understanding of cars and transportation. These five signals represent the first stage in our thinking about the disruption of the automotive industry. We need to identify changes in the overall industry landscape and identify trends that pose structural challenges for all incumbents.

1. Urbanization and public transport progress

Looking at the United States, there seems to be a resurgence of renewed rush to urban centers in various parts of the country – a long-standing unstoppable trend in developing countries. Once upon a time, the baby boom prompted Americans to flee the city center and move to a more pleasant suburban life in a natural environment. Today, large coastal cities such as New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle are showing the opposite trend: more and more people are returning to the city center.

Accompanied by this “re-urbanization” boom is the huge investment in the public transport system in the core areas of these cities. The above-mentioned cities are investing more and more funds to build subways, buses and bicycle lanes, and the intensity has not been seen for decades. The public bicycle rental system in many cities has greatly increased the speed of communication between the two points and the efficiency has increased.

Although the origins of these projects can be traced back to a few years ago, the advances that people now feel are supporting the wave of “re-urbanization” and even speeding up this trend. The enthusiasm of companies to set up their headquarters in the city center is also increasing. Throughout the United States, major companies and institutions are providing various subsidies to encourage people to use such public transportation resources, making it a social atmosphere.

2, decompose the car function

It seems that this seems to be a trivial shift, but the focus of innovation in in-vehicle electronic devices is shifting from hardware to software, and innovation entities are shifting from car manufacturers to innovative companies, which use mobile platforms to build various transportation functions. We can see that road information and traffic conditions are always available with mobile maps that provide crowdsourced data. We also see that car entertainment devices have been completely removed from the car, and the ubiquitous tablet has become a The main entertainment tool for passengers. Originally, the functions provided by the original car equipment or retrofit equipment can achieve better results through the modern mobile platform, and the change is more flexible, but the cost is lower.

This signal has two subversive elements. First, for automakers who have spent a lot of energy building their business and sales models based on in-vehicle electronics, this is bound to pose a threat to economic interests. This disruption disrupts the economic structure of car sales, especially when safety and comfort have become the foundation of the car.

Secondly, from the perspective of consumers or car owners, the intimacy and personality of the vehicle originate from the mobile device, and no longer from the car itself, resulting in a smoother process of switching from one car to another. LocalMotion even breaks down the most basic car functions, such as cars and engine launches, using RFID or other means to gain access to the car. From GPS positioning to maintenance notifications, various functions that were originally dependent on a specific car can now be implemented on mobile devices.

3. Energy issues

About half of the total oil consumed in the United States is used in private cars. No matter how quickly we look for new (and potentially risky) ways to extract oil, it seems that we are unable to meet demand. The oil embargo of 1973 left a lot of imprints in my childhood memories and had a profound impact on a country that was highly dependent on oil. Americans have always had a soft spot for high-fuel consumption cars, but this enthusiasm has been shaken twice in the 1970s and 2006-2008. Recently, we have seen the interest of ordinary people in SUVs and trucks heating up again.

Ironically, the competitive advantage of American automakers, as well as the higher profits of trucks and SUVs, will only further exacerbate the risk of subversion and lead to a lack of long-term interest in alternative energy sources.

At the same time, many software advancements have demonstrated extraordinary potential, and their impact has long been no longer limited to incrementally improving the design, manufacturing and distribution models of alternative energy vehicles. Tesla has become a symbol, and it is mentioned whenever people rethink the way cars are produced and driven. Detroit's reaction, though disappointing, was not unexpected. I recently saw in an interview that Bob Lutz, the legendary auto industry and former chairman of General Motors, is still discussing "mileage anxiety" and potential safety issues caused by battery explosions.

In many people's eyes, in addition to the direct use of fossil fuels, there are many shortcomings in any alternative energy source. However, if you just look at these modes and do not make any beneficial attempts on these models, it seems that you will repeat the incumbent. Common mistakes.

Using different energy sources to drive transportation infrastructure is a disruptive force that must be taken seriously.

4, a total of cars and carpooling

Car-raising is a headache. Ironically, from the perspective of reliability and durability, the headache of this problem has been greatly alleviated. When I was a child, if you wanted to drive from New York to Florida, you must be a member of the AAA Roadside Assistance Service, because a halfway breakdown will definitely drive you crazy. Today's cars are of high quality at the factory, especially Japanese and German cars. (I still remember that when my father bought a new car in the 1970s, he needed to list a long list of possible cockroaches.) Even after driving for thousands of kilometers, you can still maintain a very high quality without any maintenance.

Although it can bring convenience and become a symbol of identity, the cost of car ownership such as insurance, fuel consumption, parking, and the poor investment income of the car itself make the car a headache. As soon as you get on the road, a new car will immediately depreciate by 20%. In order to enjoy the pride of car owners, in addition to the cost of car purchase, you will need to spend about $300 more on the cost of car maintenance every month - if you have to pay parking fees and tolls, then the cost will be even more high. But in fact, every car in the United States has an average daily stoppage time of 23 hours. From this point of view, it seems that only a madman will buy a car.

With the advancement of urbanization, even if you want to own your own car, I am afraid it is difficult to find a place to park. With these issues in mind, the attitude of Americans to buying a car has changed dramatically, and it has become a matter of reason and will not be too shocking. Having your own car is no longer what people are dreaming of. Young people in our country are getting more licenses than ever before. From ZipCar or Cars2Go to Uber and Lyft, a total of cars or carpools have achieved new breakthroughs in car convenience and car cost.

Separating keys, personalized maps and entertainment from the car means that we can go straight to the car and then identify ourselves and drive comfortably. I can also use the GPS locator to get the same convenient car rental service. This can also benefit commercial vehicles because they can also greatly increase efficiency. With modern technology to achieve car sharing and carpooling, the time spent on the road will increase, and the number of cars on the road will decrease – whether it is for the owner or the road, this is beneficial. And everyone around you will benefit as well.

There is no doubt that the reduction in the number of cars will undoubtedly cause major damage to the automotive industry. Historical experience shows that before the advent of subversion, there will always be a “return to light” style of prosperity. So short-term car sales growth (especially SUVs and trucks) seems to be only the final swan song of the automotive industry. After those young people who have delayed their driving licenses and grown up with mobile phone rental services, they will become leaders in business and community and ultimately decide how to allocate transportation resources.

5, new technology spawns driverless cars

When Google showed the driverless car, it caused a huge response from the outside world, and then there were various comments that questioned its practicality. Although driverless cars may have to wait another 15 years or more to enter our lives, it is already an unstoppable torrent. The signals discussed above will only make the trend of driverless cars more inevitable and contribute to this trend.

As with other technology products, we will see a lot of gradual progress before the car is completely reinvented – existing cars will gradually popularize assisted driving technology. For many companies, this is all to meet market demand, especially among incumbents. Innovation happens like this. The fundamental work of Google and other companies in maps, sensors, control systems, etc. has spawned innovations such as Subaru Eyesight and Mercedes-Benz Intelligent Drive – all pioneers of fully automated cars.

In the commercial sector, we have seen products such as Daimler unmanned trucks. Since commercial transportation usually requires long-distance highway travel and maintains a driving state for a long time, the field is likely to accelerate toward unmanned or "hybrid driving" technology.

Once unmanned, it’s not hard to imagine a Utopia traffic scene – you can walk to a car nearby, which may be summoned by your mobile device, or it may be Drive automatically according to your route and plan.

Some people may still own private cars, but they will contribute to share them in order to reduce costs. Companies will also be involved in car sharing business, and the government may offer a variety of public rental cars on the roadside - just like today's public rental bicycles. Carpooling services will also benefit enormously from driverless driving. You can choose to be a car owner and have a car that you can use at will, but you can also share the cost by sharing it with more people, and you don't have to worry about the car's technology.

As long as you hold your ID card, you can enter the car directly. The vehicle can know your destination in advance and then take you along the way. As the vacancy rate of the vehicle decreases and the utilization rate increases, the traffic flow will be smoother. Thanks to improved smart technology, cars can also calculate the most reasonable path. Not only that, the driverless car avoids the driver's distraction, emotions and liberty, thus greatly improving the traffic safety factor. In fact, when driving more than one ton of iron guys at a speed of tens of kilometers, computers are far more competent and more reliable than humans. It is almost certain that it will not be long before the real person drives the car becomes an anachronistic thing.

Looking to the future

Conservatively, the car culture took about 30 years to bring about a wide range of changes to the entire American society - first from the ownership of the car (thus also gave birth to a lot of jobs to produce cars), and then built 50,000 miles The highway (which took 35 years and $500 billion) was followed by the rise of the suburban lifestyle, and the accompanying increase in personal income gave birth to the awareness of “one person, one car”. (In fact, at the peak of 2008, the average American with a driver's license had about 0.8 cars.)

It takes about the same amount of time to get to the peak of the next wave of technology. By then, there will be shared vehicles, driverless cars, and social structures and lifestyles that support these changes. But these changes have already appeared. When you combine the signs of these changes, there is an inevitable tendency for society to progress.

The incumbent will take some short-term measures to slightly improve the existing traffic conditions. This is not a bad thing, but it is a reality. Cars will add more safety tools to warn drivers who are on the road. The city will deploy more sensors and monitoring systems to provide more traffic congestion information. Technology will further improve fuel efficiency and reduce fuel consumption by 100 kilometers.

We should not forget that fans are like technical fans, and they will continue to enrich their knowledge and enjoy the experience they are passionate about.

But the incumbent is also likely to resist technological change. We have seen that some automotive industry leaders have expressed “mileage anxiety” about alternative energy vehicles. We will also see a lot of people publicizing the hidden dangers of public transportation in this new technology. The vested interest groups are also bound to greatly hinder the upgrading of infrastructure and the investment required.

These are all part of social change – no one is born with malice, and no progress or investment can be achieved without objection. Every change will face resistance, and there is no revolution in the world that can be successful.

At every stage of technological advancement, the current incumbents often deny the evidence of a new generation of technological advances. Once upon a time, many programmers resisted protected mode, virtual memory, graphical interfaces, and tablets. When Airbus deployed a flight control system in a commercial aircraft, Boeing initially resisted, but eventually adopted it in the 777. In fact, many drivers initially resisted automatic gear, GPS and even cruise control, and many of today's established car companies are also resistant to new car designs.

Perhaps all technological innovations need to follow the same trajectory: there must be an unconstrained company that truly redefines a product.

At the beginning of the 20th century, cars were not born. As Moore's Law accelerates the pace of technological advancement, perhaps only half the time, we can see the same dramatic changes. From a historical perspective, the American car culture is just a blink of an eye. The 2.0 version of the car culture is likely to penetrate into our lives at a faster rate.

When you think about the changing landscape of home car and taxi services, think about how these changes will affect public transportation, roads, airplanes, railways and more.

This is subversion - when it happens, everything seems to be slow; but suddenly, the whole world will change.

LED  Spot light we used is Sanan chip, and the driver we used is our brand. It is made by plastic frame and  aluminum back cover. We are the manufacturer of producing energy saving interior lighting. There are three adjustable color temperatures with cool white, warm white and natural white of down lights. What's more,  it is adjustable among the three colors Red/Blue/Green/Pink. The unique feature of Led Slim Panel Light is: CRI>80, PF>0.5. These panels are mainly apply to store, plaza, mall, supermarket, counter, display window, show room Counter, museum lighting.

LED Spot Light

Commercial Electric LED Downlight,Aluminum LED COB Downlight,Super Bright Ajustable Downlight Polished

Jiangmen Lika Lighting Electrical Appliances Co., Ltd , https://www.lika-led.com