Four factors promote short-term warming of photovoltaics

At the beginning of 2013, the photovoltaic industry was doing good things in succession. Many good news flooded the industry, and there was a great momentum of “turning serfs singing”. The long-thinking photovoltaic industry was ushering in a new turning point with the opening of the “two sessions” in China.

Good news: In February 2013, the price of monocrystalline silicon rose by 12.49%, and the price of polysilicon also performed well. Some enterprises in Jiangsu increased the selling price from 120 yuan/kg to 150 yuan/kg in one go. Wacker, Germany Polysilicon prices have also been raised to 22 US dollars / kg.

Good news II: On February 27, 2013, State Grid Corporation of China announced in Beijing that it will optimize its grid-connected processes, simplify network integration procedures, improve service efficiency, and promote distributed generation of power. This means that distributed grid-connected grids become more and more clear, and even in a sense, it is feasible that individuals generate electricity to sell to grid companies.

Good news 3: Photovoltaic is showing signs of recovery, and the operating rate of enterprises is higher than that of the previous quarter. After the Spring Festival in 2013, as the price of products stabilized, the operating rate of many PV companies rose. Ruijing Solar Technology plans to recover five solar cell production lines in the near future. JinkoSolar also said that the company's orders have been placed in July this year. Orders that have come in and out of January have brought domestic first-line companies' operating rates to near. Eighty percent.

Good news 4: China's "two sessions" added brilliance to photovoltaics. A small group of photovoltaic industry leaders became members of the National People's Congress or the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. They brought proposals related to photovoltaics to Beijing and instilled the advantages of photovoltaic power generation to the country and human beings to the rulers. The screams of the members may only be overwhelming, but they have provided a lot of propaganda material for the media. The industry is no longer alone, but it has attracted much attention.

Four factors promote the photovoltaic industry to "warm up"

Admittedly, the emergence of some good news is likely to be self-defeating by companies. PV companies are interested in releasing "smoke bombs" to boost investor and investor confidence. However, many signs indicate that PV companies are indeed developing in a good direction. . During the Spring Festival, domestic solar energy companies such as big new energy sources, LDK Solar, Yan Hui Sunshine and other overseas listed companies have risen more than 20%. Some companies are currently working at full capacity and there is a shortage of labor after the Spring Festival.

"Refreshing" is the result of many factors. From the inventory point of view, there are mainly the following aspects:

First, Japan, the United Kingdom, Spain, Germany and other large photovoltaic installed countries are all calling for a reduction in PV subsidies. Most countries will not adjust their timetables, which may cause these countries to have a certain degree of looting in the first quarter. In addition, the first quarter is the starting time of all countries’ annual targets. PV installations tend to have a “two rough middle” model, which means that the initial installation has ushered in a small peak. After that, the government has begun to limit the installed capacity, and the middle two quarters began to decline. The real peak period began in the fourth quarter to make up for the gap formed in the middle quarter.

Second, the elimination of production capacity has achieved substantial results, and some orders have begun to flow to existing companies. We often talk about the survival of the company to have the opportunity to enjoy the solar feast, it is too early to call the existing PV companies lucky, because the "shuffle" is not over yet. However, these companies do get a little bit of the market gap left by the losers and continue to benefit from the “shuffle” in the market. According to a research report by SEMIChina, the capacity of China's silicon PV modules in 2013 was about 34 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 24.44%. The decline in production capacity has led to an increase in the operating rate of existing companies and a concentration of shipments. The first-tier companies have begun to benefit.

Third, the power of policy has shown, and the enthusiasm of enterprises for building sites has gradually increased. The two positions of the State Grid are willing to accept distributed energy, and the on-grid price of the PV subzone is also expected to be introduced after the “two sessions”. Although the implementation effect and strength of these measures have been questioned, after all, the national ministries have retired and made a difficult first step. It is still more effective in stimulating investment in various enterprises. In fact, as early as in the second half of 2012, various photovoltaic policies were frequently launched. It was only when the time for the introduction of the policy was late, and the start-up time of the enterprises was correspondingly delayed. Many companies' mission indicators for 2012 may be implemented in the first quarter of 2013. At the same time, the photovoltaic policy has been increasingly perfected. On the one hand, the “old account” has not been completed, and on the other hand, the “new account” has gradually increased, resulting in the fact that the photovoltaic terminal market was relatively active in the first quarter.

Fourth, "double anti-" temporarily pulled up the price of the product. China's preliminary findings on the "double reverse" of polysilicon in Europe are expected to be issued around March 20. From last December, foreign countries started to converge on the dumping margin of polysilicon in China, and many Chinese companies also stopped importing polysilicon products from foreign countries. The sales of Chinese polysilicon companies began to rise, and the selling prices naturally rose. Because of the increase in the price of polysilicon, the price increase of silicon wafers is also faster, but the price increase of solar cells and components is relatively slow, which fully reflects the conductive effect of the photovoltaic industry.

The industry "recovers" time to be determined, not let "clouds" cover the eyes of the photovoltaic industry is always unpredictable, by capital and policy play in the hands of the stock, fluctuates. It should be said that the warming of the photovoltaic industry is only temporary and is the result of overheated policies.

The warmer price is the real warming, not sales. The rise in polysilicon prices is due to the “double reverse” restrictions on the dumping of foreign companies, which have not yet been transmitted to the battery components. After all, the major battery module companies have a serious inventory, and it is sufficient to ensure that shipments are made only by selling inventory before the price increase. Only the rise in the price of polysilicon is truly transmitted to the customer level, causing a substantial increase in the prices of solar cells and modules, and companies’ ability to restore profitability. That is the official start of the recovery of the photovoltaic industry.

In mid-2013, many countries, including China, may gradually lower the PV tariff subsidies, and the installed cost will only drop. It is unlikely that the products of various industrial chains will significantly increase their selling prices. Therefore, from the three aspects of silicon, silicon and components, the polysilicon price may rise slightly in the future, but it will tend to be stable in general, taking into account the interests of battery and component companies in the case of weak pricing.

In 2013, the photovoltaic industry will generally be better than 2012. However, from what point in time, what is the best and which are all unknown. Photovoltaic companies need to stay calm and not let "clouds" cover their eyes, disrupt their strategic deployment, improve technology and reduce costs are always the first, because the speed of decline in the industry really determines the speed of the photovoltaic industry outbreak, All other things are "clouds" and they all stop hurting.